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Mr. Lee Ratner, eat yer heart out. Tsar Nicholas I, around 1825, decides to constrict the Pale of Settlement, the region of the Russian Empire where Jews are allowed to reside. [Russian history what-ifs are easy, because with such autocratic government, the leader can just try something nutty because he feels like it, more than in a democracy] Under his decree, the Ukraine and Byelorussia are removed from the Pale, and Jews in the Russian Empire can basically only live in Congress Poland and Lithiuania. This removes over half the land area. His rationale [the reactionary rat bastard he is] is twofold- the Jewish presence may be acceptable for the Papist heretics, but is an abomination in the lands where the people belong to the true Orthodox Church. Ivan the Terrible thought so when he expelled the Jews from Muscovy, and what's good enough for Ivan, is good enough for me. Additionally, in its administrative policy, the Russians attempted to treat Ukraine and Byelorussia the same as other parts of Russia, without special autonomy [like Poland before 1830] or special repression, like Poland after 1830, or Chechnya, or Finland. The one glaring administrative difference between Ukraine-Byelorussia and Russia's Muscovite core is that the Pale of Settlement includes the western territories. Nucholas does away with what he judges to have been an administrative mistake. Consequences (my first vague impressions): 1. Polish ghettos get more crowded after the decree. There's heightened Polish-Jewish-Lithuanian tensions, and unrest. However, its uncoordinated unrest, which assists in divide and rule stratgies. 2. The concentration of the Jews in the western fringe of the empire encourages many people to leave the empire entirely. Polish and Jewish outmigration flows in many directions, some to the Ottoman and Austrian empires, but mostly to points west: Prussia and the German states, especially the Rhineland, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Paris, Brussels, London Stockholm. This gets started in a significant way in the second half of the 1830s. Europe was developing economically at this time, and border controls weren't terribly tight. 3. Consequences, the newcomers bring with them the Orthodox Judaism that German Jews were starting to abandon at this time. Some urbane folk in the west initially welcome these people, but the novelty wears off after awhile and anti-semitism increases, although not necessarilly to murderous proportions in most cases. 4. Some Jewish and Polish newcmers participate in the political thinking of the time by the late 1840s. There's a Young Israel student movement much like the Young Italy, Young Germany and Young Poland movements that emerged at that time. It can't decide if its a cultural movement or a Zionist movement in the years leading up to 1848. Many Jewish students also at least attempt to join the national movements of the states where they live. The German Confederation may do something to define ethnic German-ness, although this would be awkward for Austria. 5. The countries where these migrants move too,the UK, Sweden, Denmark, the Germanies, the Netherlands, were also the countries that were exporting lots of people to the United States around this time. In France, this leads to a bit more of a 'Rainbow France' situation, as France was not a net exporter if emigrants. Bottom-line, alot more Jews and Polish Catholics participate in the 1840s thru 1880s waves of emigration to the US. 6. In the US, Old Testament loving Protestants have an initially favorable attidue towards Jewish newcomers. However, the novelty soon wears off, and the added non-Protestant element of the 1840s and 1850s immigration may strengthen nativist movements. Yankees, Germans, Jews, Poles, Irish and blacks [always in last place] are competitors in urban areas, with shifting political allegiances depending on circumstance. 7. Jews might be more pro-Abolitionist than other immigrant groups at the time, but the commitment to social justice for other people might not be that strong a trait at this historical juncture, the migration would effect cultural evolution in unpredictable ways, as its coming at the dawn of reform Judaism and only a generation and a half after the relaxation of West European ghettos.. 8. Possibly, the Jews, as non-Christians, are as ill-received as the Chinese in the US [and other areas of white settlement], but I kinda doubt it. 9. By the 1860s, Jewish analogues of the Fenians may show up in the United States [the Maccabee clubs?]. Tales of Tsarist oppression by Jewish and Polish witnesses may worsen Russia's reputation in the US earlier [could this affect Alaska sale?] 10. There may be some attempt at agricultural settlement in the Plains states, but this is likely to be no more poular than similar attempts that were made later in OTL. 11. Somebody probably tries some durn fool expedition to take Palestine, let's call it 'Operation Filibusterowitz'. Maybe Garibaldi or Lord Byron will give them some money or encouragement. 12. Back in Ukraine, some economic niches vacated by the Jews go unfilled, and others are filled by Russians, Armenians, expatriate Greeks and Lebanese Christians. The overalll # of uniiversity students in Russia may be smaller too, and there will be increased inefficiencies in the Ukrainian economy, although Russia will still make some big cultural and economic achievements by the end of the century.
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